Climate variability and trends in coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District, Uganda. A cross-sectional study.

Authors

  • Caleb Nahabwe Directorate of Graduate Studies, Research Innovation, Bishop Stuart University
  • Rev. Dr . Gershom Nuwemuhwezi Directorate of Graduate Studies, Research Innovation, Bishop Stuart University
  • Dr. Wycliffe Tumwesigye Bishop Stuart University , Directorate of Graduate Studies, Research Innovation, Bishop Stuart University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.51168/xgvr7d44

Keywords:

Climate change, Average coffee yields, Smallholder farmers, Poor agronomic practices, Bunyangabu District

Abstract

Background

In recent years, climate change has increasingly threatened the livelihoods of millions of smallholder coffee farmers. The study aims to assess the average coffee yields of smallholder farmers over the past decade to climate change.

 

Methodology

A cross-sectional mixed-methods research design was employed to comprehensively investigate the impacts of climate change on coffee yield and the adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District. This design combined quantitative and qualitative approaches to provide a holistic understanding of the complex issues involved. Statistical analysis, including descriptive statistics and inferential tests (correlation, regression), was employed to identify patterns, trends, and relationships between variables. 

Results

The findings showed substantial declines in coffee yields over the past decade. Among farmers producing 501–1000 kilograms a decade ago, 46.4% had fallen below 500 kilograms, while 64.7% of those producing 1001–1499 kilograms had declined to 501–1000 kilograms. The highest yield category (>1500 kilograms) had a retention rate of only 18.8%. Overall, 69.6% of farmers reported yield declines, while 22.7% reported improvements. Yield change was significantly associated with its direction (χ² = 392.00, p < .001, Cramer’s V = 1.00), with 77.3% reporting declines and 22.7% improvements. Climate variability was the most reported driver (71.2%; χ² = 70.296, p < .001), followed by pests and diseases (38.0%) and soil degradation (33.2%; χ² = 44.449, p < .001). Poor agronomic practices were not significant (χ² = 0.010, p = 0.920).

 

Conclusion

Climate variability was the predominant perceived driver of declining coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District.

 

Recommendation

The government, through the Uganda Coffee Development Authority and Ministry of Agriculture, should establish a comprehensive coffee yield monitoring system that tracks annual productivity at the household level

Author Biographies

  • Caleb Nahabwe, Directorate of Graduate Studies, Research Innovation, Bishop Stuart University

    Is a student of a master degree of science in climate change and food security at Bishop Stuart University

  • Rev. Dr . Gershom Nuwemuhwezi, Directorate of Graduate Studies, Research Innovation, Bishop Stuart University

    is a research supervisor at Bishop Stuart University

  • Dr. Wycliffe Tumwesigye, Bishop Stuart University, Directorate of Graduate Studies, Research Innovation, Bishop Stuart University

    is a  research supervisor at Bishop Stuart University

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Published

2026-09-23

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 3 (2026): September 2026 issue

Section

Section of Environmental sciences Research

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Caleb Nahabwe, Rev. Dr Gershom Nuwemuhwezi, Dr. Wycliffe Tumwesigye

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Nahabwe, C., Nuwemuhwezi, G., & Tumwesigye, W. (2026). Climate variability and trends in coffee yields among smallholder farmers in Bunyangabu District, Uganda. A cross-sectional study. Student’s Journal of Health Research Africa, 7(3). https://doi.org/10.51168/xgvr7d44

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